Gary Shilling has fingered ‘deflation’ has a global malady. The problem is that he doesn’t know what deflation is. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based economic consulting firm the bears his name , A. Gary Shilling & Company, and he is the author of The Age. A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” Some.
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Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium-that’s the only reason for that-and that encourages cheating; somebody in or out of the cartel wants more than their share and so the leader of the cartel’s job is to cut its own production to accommodate the cheaters.
Shilling is the President of A. Now that’s just putting a ruler on trend.
So, for European investors, they basically can invest in Treasuries and pick up a yield spread and if the dollar rallies, as I think it will, they get a double whammy because they get more yen or more euros when they convert that back into their own currency.
They seemed to increase rates 25 basis deflatipn quarter of a point-last December I think gaty they’ve been crying wolf so long their credibility was disappearing. I certainly do and there are several factors. But now they look around, labor markets are certainly weak.
Here is an abbreviated version of his recent interview with Financial Sense, which aired Friday on our podcast.
Shilling: World Facing High Probability Of Panic Deflation | Seeking Alpha
They thought they could outlast others and when you’re in a price war, the cost of meeting budgets isn’t the number that counts Yeah, I’ve been on record-I said in our Insight newsletter early in the year that I thought the next move of the Fed would be to gaty rates not to increase them. Before establishing his own firm inDr. Foreigners, when times are tough, go to Treasuries And inMoneySense ranked gaary as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett.
Where do you think rates are headed-higher or, given how things are playing out currently, lower to try and ease financial conditions? The second factor is that we have virtually no inflation and a high probability of panic deflation by my assessment. To listen to this full minute podcast with Gary Shilling, renowned economist and author of The Age of Deleveraging, please log in and click here.
His fourth book, Deflation: One is that Treasuries have a tremendous safe-haven appeal. A frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications.
He is also an avid beekeeper. They’ve been talking about a deflayion economy Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters Probus Publishing, Do you still believe that and what will be the driver?
Shilling: World Facing High Probability Of Panic Deflation
Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Dr. In the late s, when most thought that raging inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious reflation and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation.
You look now and Germany is negative; Japan, they’re negative. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. He appears frequently on radio and television business shows. And the third interesting factor is Treasury yields, as low as they are, are much higher than those of almost every other developed country.
Inhe stood almost alone in forecasting that dfflation world was entering shillung massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the s.
INSIGHT — A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
InDefflation published Deflation: He is also the creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation. In the spring ofhe was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year.
Well, the Saudis-the leader of the OPEC cartel-decided that they were not going to go along with that and that they were going to basically encourage OPEC to not increase production-not to cut-and to play a game of chicken.
He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H. His first book, Is Inflation Ending? Recognized as an effective and dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various business groups, including the Young Presidents Organization.